2021-04-11 (Sunday)
21oC / 82%Céu

UM FORECASTS GDP GROWTH OF MORE THAN 21% IN 2021

A research team from the University of Macau forecasts that GDP will grow by at least 21 per cent in 2021, if the annual tourist number ranges between 13.8 million and 21.7 million.

These numbers are dim when compared with tourist visitation registered in 2019, but would represent a significant increase when compared with 2020. 

If the tourist numbers increase as expected, researchers hope that the Gross Domestic Product this year could grow between 21.4 per cent and 33.5 per cent compared with last year.

A scholar says that the territory may welcome a considerable number of tourists in the second half of this year following the growth in people vaccinated against Covid-19. 

PATRICK HO - Associate Professor of Economics, University of Macau

«If both the SAR government and the Mainland government cooperate in terms of their policies, the visitor arrivals will possibly have a considerable increase in a very short time. I think that the visitor arrivals may not reach 10 million in the first half of this year; however, it is possible to achieve this goal during the summer vacation or after. Even if the most optimistic scenario among the four happens, the situation may not be like in 2019 which was before the pandemic. However, comparing with the performance of 2020, I believe the tourist number is considerable and will register a growth of at least 50 per cent.»

Ho also cited previous researches, according to which the growth rate of the SAR’s economic development is closely related to the visitor arrivals.  

Noting that the increase in the number of Mainland tourists is helping the local economic recovery.

The Centre for Macau Studies and the Department of Economics of the University of Macau carry out the macroeconomic forecast for the territory every year.

In June last year, the team adjusted the forecast for 2020, due to the development of the pandemic.

 

 

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